Wednesday, 15 May 2013

FTSE frequency of price increase by month


The purpose of this analysis is simply to see which month's in the year typically see an increase in the FTSE index price.

This test has been conducted using the last 10 years worth of FTSE pricing history. Therefore, the data has been collected from 1st January 2003 up until 31st December 2012. The calculation has been based on the closing prices of each month, for example if January closed at a price of 5788 and February closed at a price of 5865 then this will be considered as an increase in the share price in the month of February.

The y-axis in the chart below illustrates the number of years a particular month has seen an increase in the price for FTSE.




The chart above demonstrates that typically the months running up to Christmas (December) tend to see an uplift in the price of the FTSE. Additionally, December has seen an increase in price each year for the last 10 years against the closing price of November. However, Janauary on the other hand has only seen an increase in the price against Decembers closing price 3 times in the last 10 years.

This is merely a simple analysis of which months frequently see an increase or decrease. Therefore, other factors may need to be considered on various areas, for instance the fundamentals may need to be examined to determine why December has the highest amount of increases in price. Additionally if you feel that any further detail is required please let us know and we will add this to this analysis.

Just to let you know we will be following on this post with further FTSE performance analysis in another post.

Comment below if you want us to analyse another area of the ITV stock.

Saturday, 11 May 2013

FTSE 100 index analysis

FTSE Analysis looks at various tests to determine historical trends found within the stocks on the FTSE indexes. In the main the emphasis of analysis will be placed on the shares  found within the FTSE 100 index. This is due to the consistency of the data being collected, as these are blue chip companies the share prices tend to be more stable and trendscan possibly be more predictable. Obviously, nothing is a given, but the analysis found on this blog should help our readers understand the trends found within the stocks they are researching. However, we discourage readers from using the data found on the blog to make any investment decisions, purely on the data or research outlined on the blog.

This blog is intended for informational purposes only, and is based solely on our research, therefore  our methodology may be questionable.

The below table highlights the stocks found in the FTSE 100 index.

Royal Dutch Shell ARM Holdings Randgold Resources
HSBC BAE Systems Johnson Matthey
BP Shire plc ITV
Vodafone Group Experian Aggreko
GlaxoSmithKline Tullow Oil Carnival plc
British American Tobacco CRH plc Whitbread
SABMiller Fresnillo plc International Consolidated Airlines Group SA
Diageo Antofagasta GKN
Rio Tinto Group Aviva Eurasian Natural Resources
BHP Billiton Old Mutual Bunzl
Standard Chartered Pearson plc Sage Group
BG Group Legal & General RSA Insurance Group
AstraZeneca Wolseley plc G4S
Barclays Reed Elsevier Hargreaves Lansdown
Lloyds Banking Group Standard Life Rexam
Xstrata Next plc IMI plc
Unilever Kingfisher plc Babcock International
Reckitt Benckiser Land Securities Group Tate & Lyle
Tesco Morrison Supermarkets Severn Trent
Glencore International J Sainsbury plc Polymetal International
National Grid plc Smith & Nephew Hammerson
Anglo American plc Burberry Group Resolution plc
Prudential plc Marks & Spencer Group Meggitt
Imperial Tobacco Group Capita Group Croda International
BT Group InterContinental Hotels Group TUI Travel
Rolls-Royce Group Intertek Group Evraz
Centrica Schroders Admiral Group
Royal Bank of Scotland Group British Land Co AMEC
Compass Group Petrofac Melrose plc
Associated British Foods United Utilities Serco Group
BSkyB Smiths Group Vedanta Resources
SSE plc Weir Group Wood Group
WPP plc Aberdeen Asset Management Kazakhmys
Intu Properties


In order for our readers to further research the stocks they are interested in we will be associating them to the various sectors they would typically fall into. This will highlight the performance of the sector and additionally outline the competitors to the stock being researched.

The below table highlights the list of sectors found within the FTSE 100 index.

Banking Medical
Beverages Military
Building materials Mining
Chemicals Oil and gas
Consulting Outsourced services
Consumer goods Packaging
Energy Pharmaceuticals
Engineering Product testing
Fashion Property
Finance Property services
Food Publishing
Fund management Retail clothing
Generator hire Retail homeware
Hotels Retail hospitality
Industrial products Security
Information Supermarket
Insurance Support Services
Investment Telecomms
IT Tobacco
Leisure Transport air
Manufacturing Water
Media


Tuesday, 12 March 2013

ITV's months that tend to see an increase in share price


The purpose of this analysis is simply to see which month's in the year typically see an increase in the share price against the previous month for ITV (ITV.L).

This test has been conducted using the last 10 years worth of share price history for ITV.L. Therefore, the data has been collected from 1st January 2003 up until 31st December 2012. The calculation has been based on the closing share prices of each month, for example if January closed at a share price of 98 and February closed at a price of 105 then this will be considered as an increase in the share price in the month of February.

The y-axis in the chart below illustrates the number of years a particular month has seen an increase in the share price for ITV.


The chart above illustrates that on average May is the worst month for ITV's share price as there has only been 2 out of the last 10 years tested that May has seen an increase. The chart also illustrates that the month that has seen the most frequent amount of increases over the last 10 years for ITV is Novemeber. November has seen an increase in 8 out of the 10 years tested.

This is merely a simple analysis of which months frequently see an increase or decrease. Therefore, other factors may need to be considered on various areas, for instance the fundamentals may need to be examined to determine why May has the highest amount of decreases in share price. Additionally if you feel that any further detail is required please let us know and we will add this to this analysis. 

Comment below if you want us to analyse another area of the ITV stock.

Friday, 8 March 2013

Barclays average share price change for the 12 months of a year


This analysis is intended to be a follow on from the analysis on which months have the most increases and decreases for Barclays (BARC.L). This analysis is intended to look at which months see the highest average increases and decreases in share price.

The last 10 years worth of data has been gathered to calculate the average share price change for each month. The calculations have been based on the difference between the past month's closing price and the next month's closing price, for instance the closing share price for February would be subtracted from the closing share price of January. This would be done 10 times for a particular month, as this would be for each year analysed. After getting the change in share price for each month during the 10 years, the same month's share price change would be added up for each year and divided by 10 to give the average share price change.

Average Barclays share price change for a month

The chart above demonstrates that like the analysis on which months tend to see the most increases or decreases, May saw the most decreases in the 10 years and has the highest negative average change in share price. The chart illustrates that April has the highest average increase in share price over the 10 year period, however April has not seen the most increase in share price over the 10 year period. July has seen the most increases over the 10 year period, however has the third highest average increase in share price.

This analysis further strengthens the conclusions gathered in the analysis to determine which months tend to see the most increases or decreases for Barclays. There are various fundamental factors that need to be taken into consideration with this analysis though, for instance which month were dividends paid out. If there is any further analysis that you feel may be needed to complement this analysis on Barclays share price please let us know in the comment box below.

Thursday, 7 March 2013

GlaxoSmithKline average share price change for the 12 months of a year

This analysis is intended to be a follow on from the analysis on which months have the most increases and decreases for GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L). This analysis is intended to look at which months see the highest average increases and decreases in share price.

The last 10 years worth of data has been gathered to calculate the average share price change for each month. The calculations have been based on the difference between the past month's closing price and the next month's closing price, for instance the closing share price for February would be subtracted from the closing share price of January. This would be done 10 times for a month, as this would be for each year analysed. After getting the change in share price for each month during the 10 years the same month's share price change would be added up for each year and divided by 10 to give the average.

Average GlaxoSmithKline share price change for a month

The chart above demonstrates that like the analysis on which months tend to see the most increases or decreases, January saw the most decreases in the 10 years and has the highest negative average change in share price. April and September saw the most increases in share price for GlaxoSmithKline, however April saw the highest average increase in share price whereas September saw the fourth highest average increase in share price.

This analysis further strengthens the conclusions gathered in the analysis to determine which months tend to see the most increases or decreases for GlaxoSmithKline. There various fundamental factors that need to be taken into consideration with this analysis though, for instance which month were dividends paid out. If there is any further analysis that you feel may be need to complement this analysis please let us know in the comment box below.

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

GlaxoSmithKline months that tend to see an increase in share price


The purpose of this analysis is simply to see which month's in the year typically see an increase in the share price against the previous month for GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L).

This test has been conducted using the last 10 years worth of share price history for GSK.L. Therefore, the data has been collected from 1st January 2003 up until 31st December 2012. The calculation has been based on the closing share prices of each month, for example if January closed at a share price of 1312 and February closed at a price of 1360 then this will be considered as an increase in the share price in the month of February.

The y-axis in the chart below illustrates the number of years a particular month has seen an increase in the share price for GlaxoSmithKline.

Number of Years GlaxoSmithKline has seen an Increase in each Month

The chart above illustrates that on average January is the worst month for GlaxoSmithKline's share price as there has only been 1 out of the last 10 years tested that January has seen an increase. The increase in January was seen in 2007. April and September tends to be the best performing months for the GlaxoSmithKline share price as both months have seen increases in 8 out of the 10 years tested.

This is merely a simple analysis of which months frequently see an increase or decrease. Therefore, other factors may need to be considered on various areas, for instance the fundamentals may need to be examined to determine why January has the highest amount of decreases in share price. Additionally if you feel that any further detail is required please let us know and we will add this to this analysis. 

Comment below if you want us to analyse another area of the GlaxoSmithKline stock.

Analysis to identify the number of years Aviva (AV.L) sees an increase each month in share price


The purpose of this analysis is simply to see which month's in the year typically see an increase in the share price against the previous month for Aviva (AV.L).

This test has been conducted using the last 10 years worth of share price history for AV.L. The calculation has been based on the closing share prices of each month, for example if January closed at a share price of 283 and February closed at a price of 316 then this will be considered as an increase in the share price in the month of February.

The y-axis in the chart below illustrates the number of years a particular month has seen an increase in the share price for Aviva.

Number of Years Aviva has seen an Increase in each Month

Looking at the history of the share price over the last 10 years for Aviva most months have seen an increase at least 5 times in the share price. In fact, the average is 5.58 years that each month sees an increase. The only month that is considerably lower than this average is March (as shown on the chart above), that has only seen an increase twice in the 10 years that the sample data has been gathered from. 

This is merely a simple analysis of which months frequently see an increase or decrease. Therefore, other factors may need to be considered on various areas, for instance the fundamentals may need to be examined to determine why March has the highest amount of decreases in share price. Additionally if you feel that any further detail is required please let us know and we will add this to this analysis. 

Comment below if you want us to analyse another area of the Aviva (AV.L) stock.
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